Germany’s gas shortage could be avoided thanks to the mild winter forecast, but economists are still cautious

There is renewed optimism that Germany will be able to avoid a severe gas shortage in the coming months as a result of forecasts predicting a mild winter across Europe. The national grid agency BNetzA and the country’s meteorological service DWD collaborated on a press release in which they presented their winter forecast to the public. According to the BNetzA, the primary factor that determines the amount of energy used for heating in Germany is the ambient temperature. Natural gas is used to heat nearly half of all of the homes in Germany. It has been estimated by DWD that the winter of 2022/2023 will have an average temperature of at least 2 degrees Celsius, which is more than 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than the average for the reference period. This will place it among the warmest winters that have occurred since 1991. The French and British governments, which are DWD’s counterparts, have made projections that are comparable to those made by DWD.

According to Tobias Fuchs of DWD, “The winter prognosis is good news for all energy consumers.” Klaus Müller, head of BNetzA, stated that a relatively mild winter could help save at least 20 percent of heating gas in the coming months. We are off to a good start because our gas storages are completely full, but we can’t afford to slack off now. Müller cautioned that “just a few cold days are enough to quickly empty the storages and bring demand up to a higher level.” In spite of the fact that Germany lost its former main fossil fuel trading partner and main supplier Russia earlier this year, Germany’s gas storages were approximately 99 percent full by the beginning of November. The Department of Water and Development (DWD) explained that the long-term prognosis is less reliable than shorter forecasts and that, despite the expected trend toward warm weather, some periods throughout winter could be even colder than during the reference period. This was stated despite the fact that there is an expected trend toward warmer weather.

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In light of the fact that gas storage facilities are currently at capacity, economists working for the ZEW research institute also cautioned against becoming complacent. “The worst-case-scenario must not be forgotten,” the institute said, urging the government to take preliminary steps to avoid a “collapse” of the country’s gas market due to a supply shortage. The institute’s statement came after the institute urged the government to take preliminary steps to avoid a “collapse” of the country’s gas market. According to the head of ZEW, Achim Wambach, gas savings would continue to be just as important as they have always been. In the event that the market became unstable, the state was required to step in and allot gas volumes at predetermined prices.

“A market collapse is not just a theoretical possibility; however, the question of how it should be dealt with in practice is mostly overlooked,” said Wambach. “Even though a market collapse is not just a theoretical possibility,” Plans that detail who will receive what in the event of a supply crisis should be made as soon as possible in order to avoid chaotic reactions that could cause additional damage to the economy. “There is little incentive for businesses to get ready if they are under the impression that they will continue to receive gas as a priority customer at reasonable prices. “His argument was that the consistently high consumption increases the likelihood of there being a deficit.”

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